The U.S. real estate market is in the midst of a major boom, but the same issues that have fueled the recent boom also could be a problem for sellers, as new housing is coming on the market at prices that are more affordable than those in recent years.
That’s the message from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) this week, which released a report that shows the housing market could be more competitive than it has been in years, especially for buyers with low down payments.
The mortgage industry was still in the throes of a boom in 2015, but that has since waned, according to the MBA.
“As prices continue to fall, buyers are now facing more pressure to make a down payment,” the report said.
“They may be forced to make fewer down payments as a result of the affordability crisis, which will likely further erode affordability in the coming years.”
The housing market has been on a tear for the past year.
The average price for a home sold in January was $2,934, up about 20 percent from a year ago.
The median price of a home in that same month was $1,908, a 22 percent increase.
The report also found that the average price of homes sold in the first quarter of 2019 was $534, down more than 30 percent from the same quarter last year.
But with the mortgage market still in a boom phase, the MBA said it expects prices to remain low until at least 2019.
In that time, homebuyers will have to pay higher interest rates than they would have if they were paying on a conventional loan, which would result in a higher percentage of their purchase price going toward the interest.
This could increase the cost of a house, as interest rates will also likely increase to protect the affordability of the housing stock.
In 2019, the median home price was $3,924, up 8 percent from last year and more than double the average for all of 2016.
Home prices will average about $3.6 million in 2019, up slightly from the $3 million average in 2016.
Homebuyers have already seen the biggest price appreciation in the past three years.
Between January and June, the average home price in that time rose about 23 percent to $5,000, a record high.
But it only accounted for 5 percent of all home sales, compared to about 20 to 25 percent of sales in the same period in 2016, according the MBA report.
That means that the home market has already surpassed the historic highs of the early 2000s, according in part to the number of buyers that are willing to pay a premium to buy a home with lower down payments and a higher mortgage payment.
For buyers, the rising cost of the market will make it harder to save for a downpayment, and will likely be the main reason why some people have given up on buying homes.
The number of homeowners with mortgages that are at least 25 percent down has fallen from a peak of almost 30 percent in 2015 to about 11 percent today, according a report from the U.K. National Institute of Housing, Shelter and Community Development (NICE).
“The number of people who are having to cut their mortgage is increasing as the market has changed and people are able to save more, and that’s likely to lead to more mortgage defaults,” said Robert Bogle, an economist with the UBS Investment Banking Group.
The report does not address the impact of the mortgage interest rate hike that took effect on Monday, or whether that has affected the market.
But the increase in interest rates is expected to be one of the most important factors to consider when looking at a mortgage, according Bogle.
“We think that a rise in interest rate will probably increase the amount of the interest that borrowers are paying on their mortgages, but at the same time will also push down the value of those mortgages,” he said.
There are still some concerns about the impact on home prices.
The Mortgage Banker’s Association reported in October that there was still a significant amount of inventory on the housing markets, despite a drop in the number for the first six months of 2019.
“In a market like this, the supply of housing is limited and buyers need to make sure they are willing and able to sell,” the MBA’s report said, noting that there is no evidence that the housing bubble is over.
“But we do see a lot of sellers out there who have a lot more inventory than buyers, which means there is more demand for homes,” said Bogle of the lack of inventory.
Some experts are worried that the rising interest rates may lead to buyers being discouraged from buying homes at all, which could increase home prices in the future.
Many buyers have seen the market fall off a cliff after the Fed cut interest rates in December, but it is not clear whether the Fed’s actions are responsible for the